Canada’s Future at Risk: The New Global Threats to Our Borders and Security

Introduction

‘Canadians are still under the impression that the military can be rebuilt if required. Once they try, and see that they cannot do it, similar to how they cannot fix other problems like healthcare, housing, technology job market, resource industry, energy industry or economy, and as global situations intensify, then panic will set in. Then people will think in a new way.’

‘What have we done’

‘This is a mental trap. It would be much easier to try to do something when you don’t need to do it than to end up in a situation when it cannot be done when you need it to be done.’

As the world moves toward a multi-polar configuration, the security and sovereignty of Canada face unprecedented challenges. The traditional safeguards provided by historical alliances, particularly NATO, are increasingly under strain due to internal and external pressures on key allied nations. Simultaneously, the emergence of new global powers like BRICS is reshaping the international order. This essay explores the complexities of maintaining Canadian sovereignty within this evolving landscape, where the security frameworks of the 20th century may no longer guarantee sovereignty.’

Historical Context and Current Alliances

Canada’s borders and sovereignty have long been underpinned by a series of treaties and alliances that established and protected its territorial integrity. Treaties such as the Treaty of Paris (1783), the Oregon Treaty (1846), and the Webster-Ashburton Treaty (1842) with France, the UK, and the United States have historically defined Canada’s geographical boundaries. These agreements were crucial in embedding the commitments of these major powers to Canadian security.

However, it is essential to recognize that these treaties were established within a 20th-century framework, relying on the geopolitical stability provided by NATO and the broader Western alliance. These borders were recognized and protected by powers that are not part of the 21st-century global order being shaped by BRICS. This gap highlights a critical vulnerability: Canada’s borders are secured by agreements that are not recognized by the emerging BRICS architecture. As BRICS continues to expand, with Russia declaring the recent integration of 159 program partners into a new financial system, Canada’s reliance on historical treaties appears increasingly precarious.

Evolving Global Dynamics

The international security landscape is undergoing significant transformations, driven by both internal and external factors in key allied nations:

Shifts in Key Allies’ Policies

The US, UK, and France have been pillars of Canada’s security framework through their commitments within NATO. However, these nations are now experiencing significant internal challenges, including cultural and economic instability. The rise of populist movements, epitomized by policies like ‘America First,’ suggests a potential retreat from global security responsibilities in favour of domestic priorities. Recent elections in France and the UK, while resulting in left-leaning governments, do not negate this long-term populist trend but rather complicate it, as these governments may focus more on internal challenges than international commitments.

This internal focus is further exacerbated by the growing national debt levels and economic strain within these countries. The rapid escalation of debt interest costs, coupled with cultural clashes reminiscent of a civil war, raises serious questions about their ability to uphold international security commitments. The ideological battles between populism and leftist policies, particularly around immigration and national identity, contribute to political instability, which in turn threatens their capacity to provide security guarantees to Canada.

European Security Reconfiguration

In Europe, the concept of a European Army, driven by EU-Russian tensions and the desire for greater European autonomy, suggests a potential shift from NATO to a European-led security framework (after resolution of the current Ukraine/Russia conflict). This political administrative reconfiguration would fundamentally alter the support structure that Canada relies on for its defence. The possibility of a post-NATO Europe focused on its own collective security needs could leave Canada increasingly isolated, as the European Union prioritizes its regional concerns over transatlantic security ties.

Rising Influence of BRICS

The expansion of BRICS, particularly with Russia’s recent announcement of an integration of 159 program partners into a new financial messaging system, signifies a shift towards a new economic and military bloc. This bloc operates outside the traditional Western-dominated international order, challenging the existing global structures that Canada has historically depended on. The BRICS nations, which do not recognize the historical treaties that secure Canada’s borders, are rapidly becoming influential players in the 21st-century global landscape. This shift underscores the urgent need for Canada to reassess its security strategy and adapt to a world where its traditional allies may no longer hold the same sway.

The Role of Economic and Cultural Instability

The internal instability within the US, UK, and France is not just a political or cultural issue but one that directly impacts their ability to act as reliable security partners for Canada. The economic instability, driven by unsustainable debt levels and rising interest costs, is compounded by cultural divisions that threaten the social fabric of these nations. As these countries grapple with internal crises, their focus inevitably shifts inward, reducing their capacity to engage in international security efforts.

Moreover, the growing polarization between populist movements and leftist policies within these nations further destabilizes their political systems. The cultural clash over immigration and national identity fuels this polarization, making it increasingly difficult for these countries to present a unified front on the global stage. This internal discord undermines their ability to fulfill their international commitments, leaving Canada vulnerable.

Detailed Treaty Information

To fully understand the implications of these global shifts, it is important to revisit the historical treaties that have shaped Canada’s borders:

Treaty of Utrecht (1713): Resolved disputes between the French and British empires in North America, notably ceding parts of Acadia and Newfoundland from France to Britain.
Royal Proclamation of 1763: Issued by King George III, this proclamation established administrative areas in North America, laying the groundwork for future borders within Canada.
Treaty of Paris (1783): Ended the American Revolutionary War, defining the border between the newly independent United States and what remained of British North America.
Oregon Treaty (1846): Established the 49th parallel as the border between the British Empire and the United States in the west.
Alaska Boundary Dispute (1903): Resolved the boundary between Alaska and Yukon, favouring the U.S. but impacting Canada’s territorial claims.
Labrador Boundary Decision (1927): Clarified the boundary between Quebec and Labrador, crucial after Newfoundland and Labrador’s later entry into Confederation.

These treaties, while historically significant, do not carry the same weight in a world increasingly influenced by non-Western powers like BRICS, which do not recognize these agreements as part of the 21st-century international framework.

Strategic Recommendations

Given these evolving challenges, Canada must take proactive steps to secure its sovereignty in a multi-polar world:

Enhance Military Capabilities: Canada should significantly invest in its military infrastructure and technology to prepare for potential threats, particularly as traditional allies become less reliable. This will likely require 4% or 16% spending towards military, for rapid modernization and scaling process.
Diversify Alliances: Canada needs to broaden its alliance framework beyond NATO, potentially engaging more with all European countries, including a rising Eastern Europe, Mexico, South Korea, Japan, India, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil (if possible), and exploring new diplomatic and military relationships with emerging market powers.
Intensify Diplomacy: Strengthening diplomatic efforts is crucial for Canada to maintain its influence and negotiate its interests effectively on the international stage. This includes engaging with both traditional allies and new partners within the BRICS bloc to navigate the complexities of a multi-polar world.
Economic Resilience: Canada must build economic resilience to withstand potential shifts in global trade dynamics, particularly as BRICS nations continue to expand their influence. This includes diversifying trade partnerships and reducing dependency on any single economic bloc.

Conclusion

Canada’s approach to national security must evolve to address the risks of a potentially multi-polar world order. The historical pillars of Canadian security — reliance on NATO, treaties with Western powers, cultural stability, political stability, and economic stability — are increasingly under threat from adversarial and non harmonious cultural evaluation immigration policy, rise of new global powers, economic instability, and cultural divisions (the mixing of adversarial cultures instead of bonded cultures) within key allies. By bolstering military capabilities, diversifying alliances, and intensifying diplomatic efforts, Canada can navigate these complexities to maintain its sovereignty and security in an uncertain global landscape. The time to act is now, before the old guarantees of the 20th century give way to the uncertainties of the 21st.

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True North

@TrueNorthCentre Chinese military activity continues to increase near Canada’s Arctic, as a Canadian warship encountered a Chinese polar research vessel in the Bering Strait near Alaska earlier this month.

@SkillsGapTrain @TrueNorthCentre That’s right. Russia and China are probing weaknesses of North America in a more obvious manner right now.

BRICS and alliance partners are under no obligation to honour the “borders” of Canada in 21st century.

Their economies are projected to rise as primary economies, ascending far beyond America by 2050.

The agreements and treaties that established the borders of Canada were not made with BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), of any of their rapidly growing and vast alliance database of countries.

The key agreements and treaties involved were primarily between European colonial powers (such as Britain and France) and later the United States.

The BRICS countries did not play a role in these historical negotiations and agreements regarding Canada’s borders.

Here are the key treaties and agreements:

Treaty of Paris (1763): Ended the Seven Years’ War and ceded French territories in North America to Britain.

Quebec Act (1774): Expanded the boundaries of the Province of Quebec.

Jay Treaty (1794): Established peaceful trade relations and settled border issues between the United States and British North America.

Treaty of Ghent (1814): Ended the War of 1812, restoring pre-war boundaries.

Webster-Ashburton Treaty (1842): Resolved border disputes between the United States and British North America in the northeast.

Oregon Treaty (1846): Established the 49th parallel as the boundary between British North America and the United States in the Pacific Northwest.

British North America Act (1867): United Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia into the Dominion of Canada, defining internal provincial borders.

Alaska Boundary Settlement (1903): Resolved by arbitration, establishing the boundary between Alaska and Canada.

Newfoundland Act (1949): Newfoundland joined Canada as the tenth province, establishing its borders as part of Canada.

These historical treaties and agreements are not part of the current international rising alliance order and logic and historical great power practice dictates that they would not be recognized throughout the 21st century. There would be no strategic advantage for any great power to recognize these borders since they wouldn’t self-sacrifice 10 million square kilometers of undefended land and undefended Arctic area for no financial return or resources and energy payment (sizeable).

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