Canada's Energy Ambitions: Can Doubling Exports Propel It to Global #1?

SGT: If Canada were to double its current oil and natural gas exports, would it be the world’s #1 exporter of both?

o1: “If Canada were to DOUBLE its current CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS exports, it would very likely not be the world’s #1 exporter of both simultaneously.

1. Crude Oil Exports

Canada’s current exports: ~3.5 – 4.0 million barrels per day (bpd).

If Canada doubled that to ~7.0 – 8.0 million bpd, it would put Canadian exports in the same ballpark as Saudi Arabia (often ~7–8 million bpd) and possibly higher than some other large exporters (e.g., Russia’s pre-2022 ~5 million bpd in crude & condensate).”

However: Saudi Arabia has the capacity to export well above 7 million bpd depending on policy and market conditions.

Even if Canada’s exports reached ~7–8 million bpd, Saudi Arabia could still match or exceed that level if it chose to. So, at best, Canada would be on par with — or close to — Saudi Arabia, not necessarily the guaranteed #1 in the world.

2. Natural Gas Exports

Canada’s current exports: ~70 – 80 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year (primarily pipeline to the United States).

If Canada doubled that to ~140–160 bcm/year, it would be a major increase.

However: Russia has historically exported ~200+ bcm/year (pre-2022), making it the world’s largest natural gas exporter.

Qatar exports ~120–130 bcm/year equivalent in LNG (roughly 75–80 million tonnes).

Norway exports ~115–120 bcm/year (almost entirely pipeline to Europe).

The United States has become a large LNG exporter (~80–100 bcm/year equivalent), but also sends some pipeline gas to Mexico and Canada.

Doubling Canada’s exports to ~140–160 bcm/year could potentially approach or surpass Norway and Qatar in some scenarios, but it would not guarantee surpassing Russia’s historic high of 200+ bcm/year (although Russia’s future exports may be impacted by geopolitical changes).

Conclusion

Even if Canada doubled both its crude oil and natural gas exports:

Crude oil: Canada might come close to Saudi Arabia’s export range (~7–8 million bpd), but not necessarily exceed it if the Saudis maintain or increase their exports.

Natural Gas: Doubling Canadian gas exports likely would not top Russia’s pre-2022 export levels (~200+ bcm/year).

Therefore, Canada would not be the world’s #1 exporter of both crude oil and natural gas in that scenario.”

SGT: “What will it take for Canada to surpass Saudi Arabia in crude oil exports?”

o1: “Keep in mind, this is purely a theoretical exercise — whether it’s even possible depends on massive infrastructure, investment, environmental, and policy considerations.

1. Saudi Arabia’s Oil Exports

Typical crude export range: ~7–8 million barrels per day (bpd)

Saudi Arabia also has the ability to scale up (or down) exports based on OPEC decisions and spare capacity.

2. Canada’s Current Oil Exports

Current crude oil & condensate exports: ~3.5–4 million bpd (mostly to the U.S.)

Growth since 2000 has primarily come from oil sands development in Alberta.

3. Theoretical Requirement to Surpass Saudi Arabia

Double (from 4 to 8 million bpd) would put Canada roughly on par with Saudi Arabia’s usual range.

Triple (from 4 to 12 million bpd) would, in theory, surpass the 7–8 million bpd that Saudi Arabia typically exports — but only if Saudi Arabia were not ramping up further.

Feasibility Considerations

Resource Base

Canada does have a very large oil sands resource base (the third-largest oil reserves in the world, behind Venezuela and Saudi Arabia).

However, reserves in the oil sands are technically more challenging and costlier to produce compared to many conventional sources.

Infrastructure & Capital

Tripling production/export would require huge capital investment in both upstream production (new extraction sites, upgraders) and transportation infrastructure (pipelines, rail, or additional export terminals).

Significant new pipeline capacity would be necessary to move that much oil to tidewater or across borders.

Environmental and Regulatory Constraints

Oil sands development faces regulatory hurdles, environmental impact assessments, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets, and potential legal challenges.

Public and political acceptance for major expansions may be limited by climate-change commitments and local environmental concerns.

Market Demand & Price

Even if Canada could triple production, there must be steady global demand to purchase that supply.

A sudden surge of supply from Canada (or any country) without a matching increase in global demand could lower prices, impacting the economic feasibility of large-scale oil sands expansion.

Competition from Other Producers

Other major producers (e.g., U.S., Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq) may adjust their own outputs in response to market conditions, so out-exporting Saudi Arabia would not be solely up to Canada’s supply push.

4. Conclusion

Tripling Canada’s crude output to ~12 million bpd could, on paper, surpass Saudi Arabia’s usual export level of ~7–8 million bpd.

But in reality, this would require enormous capital investment, new pipelines/terminals, regulatory approvals, and a market willing to absorb those extra barrels — all while competing with other global producers and adhering to environmental constraints.

Ultimately, while Canada has substantial reserves, surpassing Saudi Arabia in oil exports by a wide margin is theoretically possible but extremely challenging — especially in the short or medium term.

The practicality involves far more than just resource endowment; it hinges on economics, infrastructure, policy, and global market dynamics.”

SGT: As a short term goal recommendation for Danielle Smith, exporting 1 million bpd additional to the 2x oil production goal of Danielle Smith, at 8 million bpd or 9 million bpd, to outperform Saudi Arabia, is SGT’s recommended target for Canada.

SGT: Danielle Smith, to position Canada as the world leader in oil production and export, simply boost the current 2x output target by an additional 1 million bpd. This extra capacity would give Canada a 1 million bpd edge over Saudi Arabia.

SGT: What it would take for Canada to become the #1 exporter of natural gas worldwide?

o1: “A high-level overview of what it would take for Canada to become the #1 exporter of natural gas worldwide. This is a theoretical discussion, as actual outcomes depend on many economic, infrastructural, and political factors.

1. Current Top Natural Gas Exporters (Approximate)

Russia

Historically exported ~200–220 bcm/year (pre-2022).

Actual recent exports have been declining due to geopolitical changes and reduced European demand, but they still remain large.

Qatar

LNG exports ~75–80 million tonnes/year, which is roughly 100–110 bcm/year equivalent.

Total natural gas exports (pipeline + LNG) in the range of ~120–130 bcm/year (depending on the data source and conversion factors).

Norway

Pipeline exports to Europe of ~115–120 bcm/year.

United States

Rapidly increasing LNG exports (~80–100 bcm/year equivalent) plus pipeline exports to Mexico and Canada.

The U.S. could challenge or exceed Qatar in total export volumes when combining LNG + pipelines, depending on production and demand.

Canada

Current exports:

~70–80 bcm/year, almost entirely via pipeline to the U.S.

At present, Canada has limited LNG export capacity (projects under development).“

2. Theoretical Path for Canada to Become #1

To become the largest natural gas exporter, Canada would need to exceed the top range of its competitors — historically around 200+ bcm/year (Russia’s pre-2022 level).

Even if Russia’s exports remain reduced, the upper benchmark to claim a “#1” spot in normal global conditions might be 200–220 bcm/year.

That implies:

Doubling or tripling Canadian exports

Canada currently exports ~70–80 bcm/year.

Reaching 150–240 bcm/year would put Canada in contention for the top spot.

Massive Expansion of Infrastructure Pipelines:

Currently, Canadian gas primarily goes south to the U.S. Additional pipeline capacity would be required to increase flows, assuming the U.S. market could absorb more.

LNG Terminals:

The major growth potential is exporting LNG from Canada’s coasts (particularly the West Coast to serve Asian markets).

A handful of LNG projects (e.g., LNG Canada in Kitimat, Coastal GasLink pipeline, etc.) are in various stages of development or discussion.

To reach 200+ bcm/year, several large-scale LNG export terminals (beyond just one or two) would be needed, plus the associated pipelines and gas field developments.

Production Growth

Canada has substantial natural gas resources (e.g., Montney, Duvernay, Horn River in Western Canada).

Doubling or tripling exports means significantly expanding gas production. This involves major capital expenditures, drilling, completion, and midstream development.

Market Access & Demand

Even if Canada can produce and transport more, global demand for Canadian gas must exist at competitive prices.

Asia could become a major market (particularly for LNG), but Canada would be competing with the U.S., Qatar, Australia, and others.

European markets might also want diversified supply (away from Russia), but that would require long-haul LNG shipments from Canada’s East Coast or additional pipeline options (less likely due to geography).

Regulatory & Environmental Considerations

Large-scale natural gas expansion would face environmental assessments, First Nations consultation, and public policy debates (e.g., about climate change targets, emissions from production and liquefaction).

These processes can be lengthy and complex, potentially slowing or limiting growth.

Capital & Economics

Building multiple large-scale LNG terminals and associated infrastructure costs tens of billions of dollars each.

Developers need confidence in long-term price contracts to justify such investments.

3. Key Takeaways

Resource Availability: Canada does have enough natural gas resource in Western Canada to support a large increase in production.

Infrastructure is the Bottleneck: Pipelines and LNG export terminals would need to expand dramatically to handle more than double or triple the current export volumes.

Competition & Market: Becoming #1 would require Canada to exceed the historical ~200+ bcm/year from Russia (or any future #1 exporters such as the U.S. or Qatar).

This is technically possible but would be a long-term endeavour requiring large capital and supportive policy.

Feasibility: Given environmental regulations, capital constraints, and global competition, it is far from guaranteed Canada could or would want to expand that much.

4. Bottom Line

To become the #1 natural gas exporter, Canada would likely need to triple or more its current exports— meaning new pipelines, multiple LNG export terminals, and a massive ramp-up in production.

It’s not beyond the realm of possibility in the long run, but it would require: Huge Investment (billions in infrastructure)

Regulatory & Environmental Approvals

Sustained Global Demand at competitive prices

Political and Public Support

“Only with all these factors aligning could Canada hope to surpass 200+ bcm/year and become the top global gas exporter.”

SGT: Danielle, to secure the top spot in global natural gas exports, we must triple our current export volume — not merely double it.

Last Note: Compared to Canada, Russia boasts a higher industrial production output, a greater armaments manufacturing capacity, a larger population, and more advanced technology in aerospace, mechanized combat, and naval weaponry. However, by significantly increasing oil and natural gas exports, Canada could bridge the economic gap, generating higher revenues that could, in turn, fund the acquisition and deployment of cutting-edge high-tech industrial, technological and military systems. This strategic investment could enhance national prosperity and strengthen Canada’s future power projection on the global stage.

Canada’s Energy Ambitions: Can Doubling Exports Propel It to Global #1?